Yverdon Sport 3-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 57%, yet in-form Lausanne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 1 as Yverdon Sport welcome Lausanne to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Yverdon Sport have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Municipal — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lausanne — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Yverdon Sport have won 1, Lausanne 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–3 with Lausanne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 64% and Lausanne 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 67% | Lausanne 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.88 xG and Lausanne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.132 / defence 1.144 | Lausanne attack 0.814 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Data: 33 Yverdon Sport games / 33 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 57% | Draw 22% | Lausanne 20%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Lausanne 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Yverdon Sport (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lausanne (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 50% | Lausanne 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 57% | Draw 22% | Lausanne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.88 / Lausanne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.132 / def 1.144 | Lausanne attack 0.814 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne part of?
Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 57% chance of winning, Lausanne a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Yverdon Sport and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Record (3 meetings): Yverdon Sport 1W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.47
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.91
1.03
Lausanne xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
31.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.03 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 7D 15L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Lausanne's form line: 10W 10D 13L from 33 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.21 PPG, Lausanne on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lausanne have gone 3W 5D 9L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lausanne in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 11W 7D 15L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or Lausanne away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lausanne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
1
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Lausanne 4-1 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 59%, Lausanne 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Yverdon Sport and 71% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Yverdon Sport's games and 71% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 71% of Lausanne's.
Do Yverdon Sport and Lausanne tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat Lausanne 3-1 at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.88 xG and Lausanne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Lausanne attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 57% | Draw 22% | Lausanne 20%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 67%, Lausanne 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.21 PPG, Lausanne 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.