Servette FC 1-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Servette FC host Yverdon Sport at Stade de Genève in Super League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Servette FC — last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Servette FC at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Yverdon Sport have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Yverdon Sport away from home: 1W 3D 5L from their last 9 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Servette FC have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 78% of each side's games (from Servette FC's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 9 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Servette FC, 1 for Yverdon Sport and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Servette FC 1–4 Yverdon Sport — a Yverdon Sport win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Servette FC in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 68% and Yverdon Sport 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 47% | Yverdon Sport 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Servette FC surrender their half-time lead 62% of the time, while Yverdon Sport have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.41 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.197 / defence 1.006 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.749 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.279. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Servette FC's projected output up. Yverdon Sport's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Servette FC's last 55 games and Yverdon Sport's last 19.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 69% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 13%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.44 | Draw 5.74 | Yverdon Sport 7.50. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (69%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Servette FC's last 10 home games and Yverdon Sport's last 9 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Servette FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 78% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 69% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Servette FC 2.41 / Yverdon Sport 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.197 / def 1.006 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.749 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Yverdon Sport xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Servette FC 1 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport part of?
Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport is a Super League fixture (matchday 20) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 69% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Servette FC and Yverdon Sport will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.20) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Yverdon Sport's attack versus Servette FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 55 games and Yverdon Sport's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
69%
1.44
17%
5.74
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.37
0.96
Yverdon Sport xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
9%
11.11
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
1%
83.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Servette FC and 0.96 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Servette FC's recent record stands at 8W 8D 3L from 19 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Yverdon Sport, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Servette FC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yverdon Sport heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Servette FC have managed 4W 4D 1L from their last 9 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Yverdon Sport's away record stands at 1W 3D 5L across their last 9 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Servette FC are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.32 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Yverdon Sport in 74%.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs Yverdon Sport (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 8W 8D 3L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Yverdon Sport away?
Servette FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Yverdon Sport won Yverdon Sport 4-1 Servette FC.
Servette FC's record when hosting Yverdon Sport specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Servette FC
1
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Servette FC 2-3 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Servette FC at 78%, Yverdon Sport at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Servette FC and 56% for Yverdon Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and Yverdon Sport matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Servette FC's games and 78% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Servette FC and Yverdon Sport matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Servette FC's matches and 56% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do Servette FC and Yverdon Sport matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Servette FC's recent matches and 89% of Yverdon Sport's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Servette FC edge out Yverdon Sport 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Yverdon Sport 1-0 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.41 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.96 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Servette FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Yverdon Sport landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.01 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.75 / defence 1.22, drawn from 55/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 69% | Draw 17% | Yverdon Sport 13%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 47%, Yverdon Sport 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.