Lausanne 0-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lausanne at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face Servette FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Lausanne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lausanne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Servette FC (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Lausanne against 1.70 for Servette FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Servette FC edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2024, ended Lausanne 1–0 Servette FC — a Lausanne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 57% and Servette FC 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 57% | Servette FC 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lausanne surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Servette FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Servette FC surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.78 xG and Servette FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.096 / defence 0.961 | Servette FC attack 1.133 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.176. Data: built from Lausanne's last 58 games and Servette FC's last 58.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 48% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.08 | Draw 3.93 | Servette FC 3.78. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and Servette FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 40% (last 10 home games) | Servette FC 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 48% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Lausanne 1.78 / Servette FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.096 / def 0.961 | Servette FC attack 1.133 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Servette FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 0 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 48% chance of winning, Servette FC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (1.13x) against Lausanne's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 58 games and Servette FC's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.93
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.06
1.28
Servette FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
4%
22.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.28 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 19D 23L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.68 PPG from 63 outings (29W 19D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Lausanne against 1.68 for Servette FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 15W 8D 8L across their last 31 home games, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.39 points per game from their last 31 away games (11W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.59 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC in 65%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs Servette FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 21W 19D 23L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 29W 19D 15L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Lausanne's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.71 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Servette FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
2
Draws
6
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Lausanne 0-1 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 48%, Servette FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lausanne) and 48% (Servette FC).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs Servette FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and Servette FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lausanne's games and 64% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and Servette FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lausanne's recent games and 48% of Servette FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lausanne's recent matches and 84% of Servette FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Servette FC defy the odds to beat Lausanne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Lausanne 0-1 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.78 xG and Servette FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Servette FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 48% | Draw 25% | Servette FC 26%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Servette FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, Servette FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Servette FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.30 PPG, Servette FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Servette FC win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Servette FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.