Lausanne 1-0 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Servette FC make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade de la Tuilière — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de la Tuilière.
Servette FC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Lausanne against 1.80 for Servette FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lausanne lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Servette FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Lausanne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Servette FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 56% versus Servette FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 58% | Servette FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.77 xG and Servette FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.241 / defence 0.968 | Servette FC attack 1.147 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.290. Data: 45 Lausanne games / 45 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Servette FC 3.23. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 40% | Servette FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 46% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Lausanne 1.77 / Servette FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.241 / def 0.968 | Servette FC attack 1.147 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Servette FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Servette FC kick off?
Lausanne vs Servette FC kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Lausanne 1 - 0 Servette FC.
Where is Lausanne vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Servette FC part of?
Lausanne vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 46% chance of winning, Servette FC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lausanne and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Record (3 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 1 | Servette FC 2W.
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Servette FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Servette FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Servette FC's attack (1.15x) against Lausanne's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.34
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.21
1.43
Servette FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
5%
18.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.43 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 14D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.76 PPG from 50 outings (25W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Servette FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Lausanne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 11W 7D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (10W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.62 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Servette FC in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 16W 14D 20L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 25W 13D 12L in their last 50 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Servette FC away?
Lausanne's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.60 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Servette FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
3
Draws
5
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 2, Servette FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Servette FC 2-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Servette FC?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 52%, Servette FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lausanne) and 44% (Servette FC).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Servette FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lausanne's games and 64% of Servette FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lausanne's recent games and 44% of Servette FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and Servette FC tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out Servette FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Servette FC 1-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.77 xG and Servette FC 1.43 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Servette FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.24 / defence 0.97 against Servette FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 46% | Draw 23% | Servette FC 31%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 58%, Servette FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Servette FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.