Lausanne 0-2 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host Grasshoppers at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lausanne stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Grasshoppers have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Grasshoppers — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Grasshoppers in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 70% and Grasshoppers 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 50% | Grasshoppers 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.15 xG and Grasshoppers 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.757 / defence 1.616 | Grasshoppers attack 0.854 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.673. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Grasshoppers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Lausanne games / 20 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 18% | Draw 19% | Grasshoppers 63%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 5.56 | Draw 5.26 | Grasshoppers 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Grasshoppers (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grasshoppers at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 80% | Grasshoppers 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 18% | Draw 19% | Grasshoppers 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 62% | xG Lausanne 1.15 / Grasshoppers 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.757 / def 1.616 | Grasshoppers attack 0.854 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.673 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Grasshoppers xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kick off?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Lausanne 0 - 2 Grasshoppers.
Where is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers part of?
Lausanne vs Grasshoppers is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 18% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 63% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lausanne and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Grasshoppers's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
18%
5.62
19%
5.26
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.46
2.31
Grasshoppers xG
5.62
18%
Home win
5.26
19%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
10%
10.05
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
2%
56.48
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Lausanne and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.31 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs Grasshoppers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lausanne's recent record stands at 2W 6D 12L from 20 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grasshoppers, meanwhile, have gone 5W 8D 7L across 20 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Grasshoppers by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lausanne have managed 1W 3D 6L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grasshoppers's away record stands at 2W 4D 4L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grasshoppers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.65 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 75%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
Grasshoppers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 games (0.60 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or Grasshoppers away?
Grasshoppers's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.60 PPG; Grasshoppers away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lausanne
5
Draws
2
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 3, Grasshoppers have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and Grasshoppers?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 80%, Grasshoppers at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lausanne and 60% for Grasshoppers. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Lausanne's games and 70% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lausanne's matches and 60% of Grasshoppers's.
Do Lausanne and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grasshoppers cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat Lausanne 0-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.15 xG and Grasshoppers 2.31 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.76 / defence 1.62 against Grasshoppers attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 18% | Draw 19% | Grasshoppers 63%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 50%, Grasshoppers 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grasshoppers's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Grasshoppers arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.60. Form held, and they took the win. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.