Lausanne 1-5 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 1W 3D 5L at Stade de la Tuilière — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lausanne at 0.80 PPG versus FC ST. Gallen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 72% and FC ST. Gallen 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 50% | FC ST. Gallen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.48 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.793 / defence 1.440 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.728 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.551. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC ST. Gallen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Lausanne games / 18 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 35% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 41%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | FC ST. Gallen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 78% | FC ST. Gallen 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 35% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Lausanne 1.48 / FC ST. Gallen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.793 / def 1.440 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.728 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.551 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.62
FC ST. Gallen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 1 - 5 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 35% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
35%
2.86
24%
4.21
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.11
1.62
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.62 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 6D 10L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.67 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 1W 3D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (2W 0D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.22 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 72%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 4W 4D 10L in their last 18 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Lausanne's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.67 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 78%, FC ST. Gallen at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 78% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Lausanne's games and 78% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 78% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 1-5 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.48 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.62 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.79 / defence 1.44 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.73 / defence 1.54, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 35% | Draw 24% | FC ST. Gallen 41%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 50%, FC ST. Gallen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.67 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.