Lausanne 3-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Tuilière, Lausanne have gone 1W 2D 2L this season (5 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 0.90 PPG, FC Basel 1893 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 91% and FC Basel 1893 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 82% | FC Basel 1893 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.79 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.887 / defence 1.203 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.978 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.291. FC Basel 1893 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Lausanne games / 46 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | FC Basel 1893 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 80% | FC Basel 1893 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Lausanne 1.79 / FC Basel 1893 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.887 / def 1.203 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.978 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 3 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 42% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.89) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.74
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.31
1.52
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
5%
19.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.9 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.52 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 0.82 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Basel 1893's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.45 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 91% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 75%, FC Basel 1893 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lausanne's games and 75% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 3-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.79 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.52 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.98 / defence 1.26, drawn from 11/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 42% | Draw 27% | FC Basel 1893 31%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 82% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 82%, FC Basel 1893 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 0.82 PPG, FC Basel 1893 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.