Lausanne 1-6 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Lausanne welcome BSC Young Boys to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lausanne — All Games: 0W 3D 3L from 6 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lausanne have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lausanne have posted 0W 2D 1L at Stade de la Tuilière — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BSC Young Boys stand at 2W 2D 1L from 5 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. BSC Young Boys have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. BSC Young Boys's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Lausanne's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, BSC Young Boys in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
BSC Young Boys in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 100% and BSC Young Boys 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 60% | BSC Young Boys 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.31 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.811 / defence 1.230 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.880 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.399. Data: 6 Lausanne games / 5 BSC Young Boys games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 29% | Draw 32% | BSC Young Boys 38%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | BSC Young Boys 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 100% | BSC Young Boys 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 29% | Draw 32% | BSC Young Boys 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Lausanne 1.31 / BSC Young Boys 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.811 / def 1.230 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.880 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.51
BSC Young Boys xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Lausanne 1 - 6 BSC Young Boys.
Where is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys part of?
Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 29% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lausanne and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.81x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BSC Young Boys's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
29%
3.40
32%
3.12
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.83
1.51
BSC Young Boys xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.43
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.51 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 0W 3D 2L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lausanne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, BSC Young Boys are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Goals in Recent Form
Lausanne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.80 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: BSC Young Boys in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 (1.60 PPG).
Have Lausanne or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting BSC Young Boys specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Lausanne 0-2 BSC Young Boys.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lausanne at 100%, BSC Young Boys at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lausanne) and 40% (BSC Young Boys).
On the defensive side: BSC Young Boys in 40%; BSC Young Boys in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Lausanne's games and 40% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lausanne's recent games and 40% of BSC Young Boys's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BSC Young Boys run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BSC Young Boys beat Lausanne 1-6 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.31 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.51 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. BSC Young Boys outscored their 1.51 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.88 / defence 1.05, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 29% | Draw 32% | BSC Young Boys 38%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, BSC Young Boys 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BSC Young Boys arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Lausanne shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BSC Young Boys scored 6 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.