Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 meet at Letzigrund Stadion in Super League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Grasshoppers's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grasshoppers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grasshoppers's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Letzigrund Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Grasshoppers, 5 for FC Basel 1893 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Grasshoppers — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grasshoppers 60% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grasshoppers 56% | FC Basel 1893 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.56 xG and FC Basel 1893 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.848 / defence 1.139 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.012 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.863 / away 1.764. Data: 43 Grasshoppers games / 43 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 49%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | FC Basel 1893 2.04. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grasshoppers 60% | FC Basel 1893 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Letzigrund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 21% | FC Basel 1893 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Grasshoppers 1.56 / FC Basel 1893 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.848 / def 1.139 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.012 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.863 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
2.03
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Letzigrund Stadion.
Where is Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Letzigrund Stadion.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 30% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893?
Record (10 meetings): Grasshoppers 4W | Draws 1 | FC Basel 1893 5W.
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 in?
Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Grasshoppers's attack at 0.85x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.01x) against Grasshoppers's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
30%
3.36
21%
4.68
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
3.59
2.03
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.65
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 2.03 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Grasshoppers have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 12D 25L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grasshoppers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 20W 9D 19L from 48 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grasshoppers.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Grasshoppers have posted 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 11W 3D 10L from 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Grasshoppers are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.50 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grasshoppers have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Grasshoppers have gone 11W 12D 25L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 20W 9D 19L in their last 48 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grasshoppers at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grasshoppers at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Basel 1893 won 0-3 on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Grasshoppers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Grasshoppers
1
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Grasshoppers have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-0 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Grasshoppers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grasshoppers 67%, FC Basel 1893 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Grasshoppers and 75% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grasshoppers play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grasshoppers's games and 58% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grasshoppers vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Grasshoppers's matches and 75% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Grasshoppers have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.