FC Zurich 5-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Zurich at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Zurich vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Zurich host FC Sion at Stadion Letzigrund in Super League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Zurich — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Zurich's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadion Letzigrund this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, FC Sion have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, FC Zurich have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
FC Zurich in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Sion in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Zurich 60% and FC Sion 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Zurich 67% | FC Sion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Zurich 2.04 xG and FC Sion 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Zurich attack 1.177 / defence 0.959 | FC Sion attack 0.869 / defence 1.382. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.562. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.382 — this is suppressing FC Zurich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FC Zurich games / 30 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Zurich 55% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Zurich 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Sion 4.17. The model has a clear lean to FC Zurich (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Zurich at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Zurich 50% | FC Sion 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Zurich vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Zurich 55% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Zurich 2.04 / FC Sion 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Zurich attack 1.177 / def 0.959 | FC Sion attack 0.869 / def 1.382 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.562 • Poisson stance: FC Zurich (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
FC Zurich xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Sion xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Zurich vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
FC Zurich 5 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Zurich vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is FC Zurich vs FC Sion part of?
FC Zurich vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Zurich a 55% chance of winning, FC Sion a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Zurich the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Zurich and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Zurich vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Zurich and FC Sion in?
FC Zurich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Zurich's attack rating (1.18) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Zurich's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Zurich Win
55%
1.83
21%
4.69
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
FC Zurich xG
Total xG
3.34
1.30
FC Sion xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
3%
31.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Zurich and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC Zurich and 1.30 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Zurich vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, FC Zurich have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 20W 6D 4L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, FC Zurich are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Zurich have posted 2.40 PPG from 15 outings (11W 3D 1L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 3W 4D 8L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Zurich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Zurich are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.23 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Zurich have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Sion in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Zurich
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Zurich and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Zurich have gone 20W 6D 4L in their last 30 games (2.20 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Zurich at home or FC Sion away?
FC Zurich's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Zurich at home: 2.40 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.87 PPG.
Have FC Zurich or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Zurich have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Sion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Zurich's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Zurich
2
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Zurich and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Zurich have won 4, FC Sion have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Zurich and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Zurich 1-2 FC Sion.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Zurich at 60%, FC Sion at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Zurich and 60% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Zurich home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Zurich play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Zurich's games and 80% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Zurich vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Zurich's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Zurich and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Zurich have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Zurich run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat FC Sion 5-1 at Stadion Letzigrund, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 2.04 xG and FC Sion 1.30 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Zurich beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against FC Sion attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 55% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 24%, with FC Zurich to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 67%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Zurich's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Sion's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Zurich arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Zurich (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm. FC Sion (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.