FC Thun 1-2 Grasshoppers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Thun vs Grasshoppers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Relegation Round sees Grasshoppers travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 May 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Thun stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grasshoppers — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Grasshoppers have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Thun 1.00 PPG, Grasshoppers 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Thun, 0 for Grasshoppers and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.29 xG and Grasshoppers 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Grasshoppers attack 0.733 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Data: 0 FC Thun games / 69 Grasshoppers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 45% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Grasshoppers 3.70. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Grasshoppers | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 45% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG FC Thun 1.29 / Grasshoppers 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Grasshoppers attack 0.733 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Grasshoppers xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs Grasshoppers kick off?
FC Thun vs Grasshoppers kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 31 May 2024 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
FC Thun 1 - 2 Grasshoppers.
Where is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers part of?
FC Thun vs Grasshoppers is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 45% chance of winning, Grasshoppers a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both FC Thun and Grasshoppers will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs Grasshoppers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
Record (1 meetings): FC Thun 0W | Draws 1 | Grasshoppers 0W.
What form are FC Thun and Grasshoppers in?
FC Thun (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Grasshoppers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.85) and Grasshoppers's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Grasshoppers's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC Thun xG
Total xG
2.22
0.93
Grasshoppers xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Grasshoppers expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC Thun and 0.93 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Grasshoppers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, FC Thun have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Grasshoppers's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Grasshoppers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Thun on 1.00 PPG, Grasshoppers on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
FC Thun are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Grasshoppers are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Grasshoppers in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
Grasshoppers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and Grasshoppers in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Grasshoppers have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Thun and Grasshoppers runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Thun have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2026, when FC Thun won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Thun's record when hosting Grasshoppers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
Grasshoppers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, Grasshoppers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Grasshoppers last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Grasshoppers?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Grasshoppers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play Grasshoppers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Thun's games and 100% of Grasshoppers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs Grasshoppers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Thun's recent games and 0% of Grasshoppers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Thun and Grasshoppers tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Grasshoppers in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grasshoppers defy the odds to beat FC Thun 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grasshoppers beat FC Thun 1-2 at Stockhorn Arena, Relegation Round, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.29 xG and Grasshoppers 0.93 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grasshoppers outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Grasshoppers attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 0/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 45% | Draw 28% | Grasshoppers 27%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Grasshoppers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 0%, Grasshoppers 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Thun 1.00 PPG, Grasshoppers 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grasshoppers win broke the near-deadlock. FC Thun shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grasshoppers scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.