FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC ST. Gallen travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Thun are significantly better at Stockhorn Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC ST. Gallen are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Thun register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC ST. Gallen in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC Thun have won 2, FC ST. Gallen 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 4–3 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Thun trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 70% and FC ST. Gallen 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 74% | FC ST. Gallen 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.68 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.939 / defence 1.222 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.076 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.955 / away 1.846. Data: 37 FC Thun games / 37 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 26% | Draw 19% | FC ST. Gallen 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 3.85 | Draw 5.26 | FC ST. Gallen 1.85. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 2.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 60% | FC ST. Gallen 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 26% | Draw 19% | FC ST. Gallen 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Thun 1.68 / FC ST. Gallen 2.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.939 / def 1.222 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.076 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.955 / away 1.846 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
2.43
FC ST. Gallen xG
74%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
Where is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 26% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 54% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (5 meetings): FC Thun 2W | Draws 2 | FC ST. Gallen 1W.
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Thun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (0.94) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 2.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
26%
3.80
19%
5.20
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
FC Thun xG
Total xG
4.11
2.43
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.80
26%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
9%
11.34
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
2%
43.05
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FC Thun and 2.43 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 43 games, going 26W 4D 13L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.79 PPG from 43 outings (22W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Thun on 1.91 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 12W 3D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.90 points per game from 21 outings (11W 7D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.91 scored and 1.35 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 74%.
Last 43 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Early Season
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 26W 4D 13L in their last 43 games (1.91 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 11D 10L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC ST. Gallen's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.86 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Thun's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 67%, FC ST. Gallen at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Thun and 71% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Thun's games and 86% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Thun's matches and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.