FC Thun 2-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stockhorn Arena plays host to FC Thun versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Sion's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Sion have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC Thun's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Thun lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with FC Thun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Thun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Thun 73% versus FC Sion 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Thun 82% | FC Sion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.976 / defence 1.001 | FC Sion attack 1.063 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.891 / away 1.410. Data: 11 FC Thun games / 44 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | FC Sion 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 80% | FC Sion 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Thun 1.59 / FC Sion 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.976 / def 1.001 | FC Sion attack 1.063 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.891 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.50
FC Sion xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
FC Thun 2 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Sion part of?
FC Thun vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 40% chance of winning, FC Sion a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Thun and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
Record (1 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in?
FC Thun (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. FC Sion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (1.06x) against FC Thun's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 11/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.19
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.09
1.50
FC Sion xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.50 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Thun's recent record stands at 8W 1D 2L from 11 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion, meanwhile, have gone 5W 3D 3L across 11 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Sion heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Sion's away record stands at 3W 2D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.64 PPG overall record — FC Sion travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.55 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Sion in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 8W 1D 2L in their last 11 games (2.27 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Sion away?
FC Sion's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 2.20 PPG.
Have FC Thun or FC Sion been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Thun have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FC Sion in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
1
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Sion?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, FC Sion have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FC Sion 2-0 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Sion?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for FC Thun, 60% for FC Sion — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Thun and 60% for FC Sion. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Thun's games and 60% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Thun's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Thun and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Sion 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.50 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against FC Sion attack 1.06 / defence 0.86, drawn from 11/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 40% | Draw 24% | FC Sion 36%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 82%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.