FC ST. Gallen 1-2 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen host FC Thun at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 October 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Kybunpark this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have recorded 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Thun have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Thun away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC ST. Gallen at 1.90 PPG versus FC Thun's 1.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
FC ST. Gallen in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Thun in-play and half-time data (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 57% and FC Thun 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 71% | FC Thun 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.78 xG and FC Thun 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.999 / defence 0.726 | FC Thun attack 1.247 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.432. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC ST. Gallen's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 FC ST. Gallen games / 7 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 26%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | FC Thun 3.85. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 40% | FC Thun 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.78 / FC Thun 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.999 / def 0.726 | FC Thun attack 1.247 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Thun xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
FC ST. Gallen 1 - 2 FC Thun.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 47% chance of winning, FC Thun a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. FC Thun (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC ST. Gallen's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC Thun's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.66
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.08
1.29
FC Thun xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.29 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 5W 0D 2L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Thun's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Thun, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 2.14 PPG, FC Thun on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded. FC Thun's attacking output running into FC ST. Gallen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Thun
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Thun away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 2.25 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 25%, FC Thun 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC ST. Gallen and 100% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Thun?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 75% of FC Thun's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 100% of FC Thun's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Thun tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Thun defy the odds to beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC ST. Gallen 1-2 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.78 xG and FC Thun 1.29 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.00 / defence 0.73 against FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 26%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual FC Thun win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 71%, FC Thun 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 2.14 PPG, FC Thun 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Thun win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.