FC ST. Gallen 0-2 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Super League outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC ST. Gallen have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 0W 3D 0L from 3 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 0L from 6 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.83 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Basel 1893's away record: 1W 2D 0L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, FC Basel 1893 in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 100% and FC Basel 1893 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 83% | FC Basel 1893 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.56 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.956 / defence 1.300 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.830 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.555. Data: 6 FC ST. Gallen games / 6 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 33% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 38%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | FC Basel 1893 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 100% | FC Basel 1893 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 33% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.56 / FC Basel 1893 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.956 / def 1.300 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.830 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
FC Basel 1893 xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 2 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 33% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.83 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.96x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (0.83x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
33%
3.05
29%
3.40
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.68
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.34
8%
12.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.68 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 0W 3D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.67 points per game from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.83 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Early Season
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for FC ST. Gallen, 67% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC ST. Gallen) and 33% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of FC ST. Gallen's recent games and 33% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC ST. Gallen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC ST. Gallen 0-2 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.56 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.68 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.96 / defence 1.30 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 33% | Draw 29% | FC Basel 1893 38%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 83%, FC Basel 1893 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 92%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.