FC ST. Gallen 2-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at kybunpark: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Basel 1893 haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Basel 1893's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.30 for FC Basel 1893 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Basel 1893 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 69% and FC Basel 1893 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 56% | FC Basel 1893 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.17 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.143 / defence 1.016 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.102 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.299. Data: 36 FC ST. Gallen games / 36 FC Basel 1893 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | FC Basel 1893 4.17. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.17 / FC Basel 1893 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.143 / def 1.016 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.102 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.46
FC Basel 1893 xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 53% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.10x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.43
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.63
1.46
FC Basel 1893 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
3%
35.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.46 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC ST. Gallen come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 12D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-W. FC ST. Gallen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. FC Basel 1893 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.31 for FC Basel 1893. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC ST. Gallen's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — FC ST. Gallen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.42 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Pre-Season
FC Basel 1893
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 11W 14D 11L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.67 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Basel 1893 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
3
Draws
3
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for FC ST. Gallen, 61% for FC Basel 1893 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (FC ST. Gallen) and 50% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 61% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 50% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Basel 1893 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.17 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.46 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 24%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 56%, FC Basel 1893 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.25 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.