FC Sion 2-7 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.20 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Sion register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC ST. Gallen in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and FC ST. Gallen 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 55% | FC ST. Gallen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.55 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.851 / defence 1.053 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.112 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.347. FC ST. Gallen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 FC Sion games / 51 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 35% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | FC ST. Gallen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 60% | FC ST. Gallen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 35% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Sion 1.55 / FC ST. Gallen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.851 / def 1.053 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.112 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC ST. Gallen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 2 - 7 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 35% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.53
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.12
1.58
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.58 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 51 games, going 16W 13D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.39 PPG from 51 outings (20W 11D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (8W 2D 15L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.84 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 games (1.20 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 20W 11D 20L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.20 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 48%, FC ST. Gallen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for FC Sion and 76% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC Sion's games and 68% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of FC Sion's matches and 76% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC ST. Gallen run riot with a 2-7 hammering of FC Sion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Sion 2-7 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.55 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.58 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-7 for 9 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.58 projection by 5.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.11 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 35% | Draw 28% | FC ST. Gallen 36%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 55%, FC ST. Gallen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.20 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 7 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.