FC Sion 0-0 FC Lugano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Sion at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Sion vs FC Lugano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Sion and FC Lugano meet at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Sion (all games): 3W 1D 2L across 6 Super League fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Sion have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Sion at Stade de Tourbillon this season: 2W 1D 0L from 3 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
FC Lugano's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Lugano have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Lugano away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.67 PPG for FC Sion against 1.90 for FC Lugano. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Sion lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with FC Lugano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Sion — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
FC Lugano — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 50% and FC Lugano 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Sion 50% | FC Lugano 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.42 xG and FC Lugano 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 1.034 / defence 0.841 | FC Lugano attack 1.157 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.326. Data: 6 FC Sion games / 39 FC Lugano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 40% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | FC Lugano 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: FC Sion 33% | FC Lugano 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Lugano | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 40% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Sion 1.42 / FC Lugano 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 1.034 / def 0.841 | FC Lugano attack 1.157 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Lugano xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Lugano kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Lugano kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Lugano?
FC Sion 0 - 0 FC Lugano.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Lugano being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Lugano part of?
FC Sion vs FC Lugano is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Lugano?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 40% chance of winning, FC Lugano a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Lugano?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Sion and FC Lugano will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Lugano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Lugano?
Record (3 meetings): FC Sion 0W | Draws 1 | FC Lugano 2W.
What form are FC Sion and FC Lugano in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. FC Lugano (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Sion's attack rating (1.03) and FC Lugano's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Lugano's attack (1.16x) against FC Sion's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 6/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.89
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
FC Lugano xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Lugano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Lugano expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.29 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Lugano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, FC Sion have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Sion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Lugano's form line: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC Lugano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Lugano are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Sion.
Attack vs Defence
FC Sion are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Lugano are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. FC Lugano's attacking output running into FC Sion's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Lugano in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Early Season
FC Lugano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Lugano in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Lugano have gone 4W 1D 1L in their last 6 (2.17 PPG).
Have FC Sion or FC Lugano been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Sion have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Lugano in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 4-0 on 3 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Sion have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC Lugano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC Lugano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Lugano?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Lugano have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Lugano last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2026, when FC Sion 2-2 FC Lugano.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Lugano?
FC Lugano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Lugano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for FC Sion, 100% for FC Lugano — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Sion and 83% for FC Lugano. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Sion keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Lugano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Lugano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Sion's games and 100% of FC Lugano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Lugano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Sion's matches and 83% of FC Lugano's.
Do FC Sion and FC Lugano tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Lugano in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 7, as FC Sion and FC Lugano drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.42 xG and FC Lugano 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Lugano landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 1.03 / defence 0.84 against FC Lugano attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 6/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 40% | Draw 26% | FC Lugano 34%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 50%, FC Lugano 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Lugano's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Lugano arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Sion managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Lugano managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.