FC Sion 0-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade de Tourbillon, FC Sion have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC Basel 1893's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 62% and FC Basel 1893 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 52% | FC Basel 1893 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.13 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.735 / defence 1.109 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.084 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.606. FC Sion's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Basel 1893 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing FC Sion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 FC Sion games / 29 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 22% | Draw 22% | FC Basel 1893 56%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | FC Basel 1893 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 30% | FC Basel 1893 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 22% | Draw 22% | FC Basel 1893 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Sion 1.13 / FC Basel 1893 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.735 / def 1.109 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.084 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.606 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 0 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 22% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
22%
4.54
22%
4.54
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
FC Sion xG
Total xG
3.06
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.54
22%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
15%
6.89
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
3%
31.27
18%
5.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.0 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.93 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 6D 14L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.79 PPG from 29 outings (13W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 6W 2D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.71 points per game from 14 outings (6W 6D 2L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.21 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 13W 13D 3L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.43 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
3
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 43%, FC Basel 1893 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Sion) and 64% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Sion have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of FC Sion's games and 71% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Sion's recent games and 64% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Sion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 30, as FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.13 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Sion fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.73 / defence 1.11 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 22% | Draw 22% | FC Basel 1893 56%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 52%, FC Basel 1893 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.