FC Basel 1893 2-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Basel 1893 face Yverdon Sport.

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Analysis

Yverdon Sport make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:30 UK time.

Form

FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, FC Basel 1893 have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Yverdon Sport's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Yverdon Sport have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.20 for Yverdon Sport. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC Basel 1893, 1 for Yverdon Sport and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2024, ended FC Basel 1893 0–0 Yverdon Sport — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 52% versus Yverdon Sport 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Yverdon Sport 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.65 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.885 / defence 1.030 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.846 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.320. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 37 games and Yverdon Sport's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 49% | Draw 24% | Yverdon Sport 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.04 | Draw 4.10 | Yverdon Sport 3.77. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 60% (last 10 home games) | Yverdon Sport 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (FC Basel 1893 37 games, Yverdon Sport 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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