FC Basel 1893 3-1 Servette FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Servette FC to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 6W 2D 2L at St. Jakob-Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. Jakob-Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Servette FC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Servette FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Basel 1893 at 1.90 PPG versus Servette FC's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Servette FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 6–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Servette FC in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 52% versus Servette FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Servette FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.57 xG and Servette FC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.133 / defence 0.834 | Servette FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.223. Data: 47 FC Basel 1893 games / 47 Servette FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Servette FC 3.85. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 40% | Servette FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.57 / Servette FC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.133 / def 0.834 | Servette FC attack 1.071 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Servette FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 1 Servette FC.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 48% chance of winning, Servette FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 2W | Draws 0 | Servette FC 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Servette FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Basel 1893's attack at 1.13x the league average against Servette FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Servette FC's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.91
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.66
1.09
Servette FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.09 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 11D 20L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Servette FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 52 outings (25W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Servette FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.42 PPG, Servette FC on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Servette FC have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (9W 8D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Servette FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Servette FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 21W 11D 20L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Servette FC have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Servette FC away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.56 PPG; Servette FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or Servette FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Servette FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when FC Basel 1893 won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Servette FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC Basel 1893
1
Draws
2
Servette FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 7, Servette FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Servette FC 0-1 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 48%, Servette FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Basel 1893) and 40% (Servette FC).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Servette FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Servette FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 60% of Servette FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 40% of Servette FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Servette FC tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Servette FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Servette FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Servette FC 3-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.57 xG and Servette FC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.13 / defence 0.83 against Servette FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.88, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 48% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 26%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Servette FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Servette FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.42 PPG, Servette FC 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.