FC Basel 1893 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Basel 1893 face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park in Super League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Basel 1893 have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Lausanne — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lausanne's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Basel 1893 1.90 PPG, Lausanne 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, FC Basel 1893 have won 0, Lausanne 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jul 2024, ended FC Basel 1893 2–3 Lausanne — a Lausanne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 53% versus Lausanne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 53% | Lausanne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.82 xG and Lausanne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.235 / defence 0.838 | Lausanne attack 0.882 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.201. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 48 games and Lausanne's last 48.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.70 | Draw 4.18 | Lausanne 5.77. The model has a clear lean to FC Basel 1893 (59%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 40% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 16 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC Basel 1893 1.82 / Lausanne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.235 / def 0.838 | Lausanne attack 0.882 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Lausanne xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 16) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 59% chance of winning, Lausanne a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 48 games and Lausanne's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.18
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.71
0.89
Lausanne xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
35.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 0.89 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 22W 11D 20L from 53 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 21L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.45 PPG, Lausanne on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 12W 6D 8L from their last 26 home games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 5W 7D 14L across their last 26 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.34 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 22W 11D 20L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.62 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.85 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lausanne in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 50%, Lausanne 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Basel 1893) and 65% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Lausanne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 58% of Lausanne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 65% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 73% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 16, as FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.82 xG and Lausanne 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 59% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 17%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 53%, Lausanne 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.45 PPG, Lausanne 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.