FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. Jakob-Park plays host to FC Basel 1893 versus FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's home record at St. Jakob-Park: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.40 for FC ST. Gallen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Basel 1893 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC ST. Gallen in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Basel 1893 lead 3W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2026, ended 1–3 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FC Basel 1893 half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 63% and FC ST. Gallen 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Basel 1893 65% | FC ST. Gallen 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.75 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.933 / defence 0.961 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.891 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.858 / away 1.893. Data: 41 FC Basel 1893 games / 41 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 41% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 36%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | FC ST. Gallen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 70% | FC ST. Gallen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 41% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.75 / FC ST. Gallen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.933 / def 0.961 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.891 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.858 / away 1.893 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.62
FC ST. Gallen xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 3 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 41% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (9 meetings): FC Basel 1893 3W | Draws 3 | FC ST. Gallen 3W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — FC ST. Gallen's attack (0.89x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
41%
2.42
23%
4.40
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.37
1.62
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.26
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.62 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 9D 17L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.74 PPG from 46 outings (23W 11D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.74 for FC ST. Gallen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 9W 6D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.87 points per game from 23 outings (12W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.85 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 72%.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 20W 9D 17L in their last 46 games (1.50 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 23W 11D 12L in their last 46 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC ST. Gallen's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.43 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC ST. Gallen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 3-0 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against FC ST. Gallen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when FC Basel 1893 1-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for FC Basel 1893, 83% for FC ST. Gallen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Basel 1893 and 70% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC Basel 1893's games and 83% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 70% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 1-3 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.75 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.62 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 1.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 41% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 36%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 65%, FC ST. Gallen 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.50 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.