FC Basel 1893 3-3 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Basel 1893 host FC Sion at St. Jakob-Park in Super League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Basel 1893 — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. Jakob-Park, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 4D 1L this season (9 games, 1.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Sion stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (FC Basel 1893) versus 1.50 (FC Sion). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
FC Basel 1893 trading profile (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Sion trading profile (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 68% and FC Sion 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 47% | FC Sion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.97 xG and FC Sion 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.081 / defence 1.012 | FC Sion attack 0.798 / defence 1.564. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.617. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.564 — this is suppressing FC Basel 1893's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 FC Basel 1893 games / 19 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 4.00. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 78% | FC Sion 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.97 / FC Sion 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.081 / def 1.012 | FC Sion attack 0.798 / def 1.564 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.617 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Sion xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 3 - 3 FC Sion.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 53% chance of winning, FC Sion a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. FC Sion (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Basel 1893's attack rating (1.08) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.58
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.28
1.31
FC Sion xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
4%
28.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.31 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 9D 1L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 4W 4D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.37 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FC Sion in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 9W 9D 1L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 7W 3D 9L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or FC Sion away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.78 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Basel 1893
3
Draws
2
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, FC Sion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 78%, FC Sion at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Basel 1893) and 56% (FC Sion).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of FC Basel 1893's games and 78% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 56% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and FC Sion finished level at 3-3 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.97 xG and FC Sion 1.31 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against FC Sion attack 0.80 / defence 1.56, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 53% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 25%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 47%, FC Sion 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.