BSC Young Boys 1-2 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BSC Young Boys at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as BSC Young Boys welcome FC Sion to Stadion Wankdorf. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 13:15 UTC.
Form Guide
BSC Young Boys — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. BSC Young Boys haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Wankdorf, BSC Young Boys have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for BSC Young Boys, 0 for FC Sion and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–0 with BSC Young Boys winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BSC Young Boys 2.11 xG and FC Sion 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BSC Young Boys attack 1.239 / defence 0.928 | FC Sion attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.099. Data: 33 BSC Young Boys games / 0 FC Sion games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 66% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 14%. Fair-value odds: BSC Young Boys 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | FC Sion 7.14. The model has a clear lean to BSC Young Boys (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BSC Young Boys at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Wankdorf • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BSC Young Boys 66% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG BSC Young Boys 2.11 / FC Sion 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: BSC Young Boys attack 1.239 / def 0.928 | FC Sion attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
BSC Young Boys xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC Sion xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kick off?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Stadion Wankdorf.
What was the final score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
BSC Young Boys 1 - 2 FC Sion.
Where is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wankdorf.
What competition is BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion part of?
BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives BSC Young Boys a 66% chance of winning, FC Sion a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both BSC Young Boys and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion?
Record (2 meetings): BSC Young Boys 2W | Draws 0 | FC Sion 0W.
What form are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BSC Young Boys's attack rating (1.24) and FC Sion's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus BSC Young Boys's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.10
14%
6.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
BSC Young Boys xG
Total xG
2.98
0.87
FC Sion xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
6.99
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
2%
57.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are BSC Young Boys and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for BSC Young Boys and 0.87 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for BSC Young Boys vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BSC Young Boys
Pre-Season
FC Sion
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2023, when BSC Young Boys won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BSC Young Boys's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BSC Young Boys
2
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BSC Young Boys and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, BSC Young Boys have won 4, FC Sion have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BSC Young Boys and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when BSC Young Boys 4-2 FC Sion.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BSC Young Boys home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as FC Sion defy the odds to beat BSC Young Boys 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion beat BSC Young Boys 1-2 at Stadion Wankdorf, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BSC Young Boys 2.11 xG and FC Sion 0.87 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. BSC Young Boys fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Sion outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BSC Young Boys attack 1.24 / defence 0.93 against FC Sion attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it BSC Young Boys 66% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 14%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a FC Sion win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.