Vasteras SK FK 1-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 2 as Vasteras SK FK welcome Ostersunds FK to Iver Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 11 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Iver Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Iver Arena this season.
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ostersunds FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 57% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.79 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.015 / defence 1.025 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.329. Data: 31 Vasteras SK FK games / 1 Ostersunds FK games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 52% | Draw 23% | Ostersunds FK 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Ostersunds FK 4.00. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 70% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 52% | Draw 23% | Ostersunds FK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.79 / Ostersunds FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.015 / def 1.025 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 52% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vasteras SK FK's attack at 1.01x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Vasteras SK FK's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.31
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.16
Ostersunds FK xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.09
4%
24.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.16 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Vasteras SK FK have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 8W 9D 13L from 30 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. Ostersunds FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasteras SK FK on 1.20 PPG, Ostersunds FK on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vasteras SK FK have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Ostersunds FK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.27 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Vasteras SK FK won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasteras SK FK's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vasteras SK FK
2
Draws
1
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Ostersunds FK 1-6 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 67%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Vasteras SK FK) and 47% (Ostersunds FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 40%; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 27% of games; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 47% of Ostersunds FK's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 2, as Vasteras SK FK and Ostersunds FK drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.79 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.01 / defence 1.02 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 52% | Draw 23% | Ostersunds FK 25%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasteras SK FK 1.20 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.