Utsikten 4-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Utsikten at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Utsikten welcome Vasteras SK FK to Bravida Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bravida Arena, Utsikten have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Utsikten 2.50 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Utsikten, 2 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Vasteras SK FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Utsikten in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 56% versus Vasteras SK FK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 52% | Vasteras SK FK 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.52 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.398 / defence 0.903 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.278 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.218. Utsikten carry an above-average attack strength of 1.398 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vasteras SK FK's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Vasteras SK FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Utsikten games / 48 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 39% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Vasteras SK FK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utsikten at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 80% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Friday 18 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 39% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Utsikten 1.52 / Vasteras SK FK 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.398 / def 0.903 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.278 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Vasteras SK FK xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 August 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK?
Utsikten 4 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 39% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): Utsikten 1W | Draws 0 | Vasteras SK FK 2W.
What form are Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK in?
Utsikten (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.75
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.93
1.41
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
7%
13.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.41 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 23W 10D 15L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 23W 13D 12L from 48 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utsikten on 1.65 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 11W 4D 9L from 24 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.71 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 23W 10D 15L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 23W 13D 12L in their last 48 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Utsikten's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.67 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Utsikten won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utsikten's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Utsikten
1
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 3-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 67%, Vasteras SK FK 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Utsikten) and 54% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Utsikten's games and 58% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Utsikten's matches and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Utsikten and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Utsikten run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten beat Vasteras SK FK 4-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.52 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.41 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Utsikten beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.40 / defence 0.90 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.28 / defence 0.77, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 39% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 34%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 52%, Vasteras SK FK 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.65 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utsikten win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.