Utsikten 0-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Utsikten (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 games at Bravida Arena this term (1.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Utsikten. A 0.60 PPG lead over Orgryte IS (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Utsikten register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant games, Orgryte IS in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 2–0 with Utsikten winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Utsikten — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 47% versus Orgryte IS 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 53% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.90 xG and Orgryte IS 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.998 / defence 1.022 | Orgryte IS attack 0.947 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.290. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Utsikten's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Utsikten games / 45 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 51% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 23%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Orgryte IS 4.35. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Utsikten if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 71% | Orgryte IS 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 51% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Utsikten 1.90 / Orgryte IS 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.998 / def 1.022 | Orgryte IS attack 0.947 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Utsikten 0 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS part of?
Utsikten vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 51% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Utsikten and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Utsikten 1W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in?
Utsikten (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Utsikten's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.95x) against Utsikten's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.79
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Utsikten xG
Total xG
3.14
1.25
Orgryte IS xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
15%
6.66
Win to Nil
15%
6.89
3%
28.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.25 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utsikten's recent record stands at 7W 3D 5L from 15 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 7L across 15 games — 0.67 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utsikten by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Utsikten have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Utsikten are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.27 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 67%.
Defensively: Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Orgryte IS away?
Utsikten's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.71 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Orgryte IS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utsikten
2
Draws
3
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Utsikten 1-2 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Utsikten, 71% for Orgryte IS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Utsikten and 71% for Orgryte IS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Utsikten's games and 71% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Utsikten's matches and 71% of Orgryte IS's.
Do Utsikten and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat Utsikten 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Utsikten 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.90 xG and Orgryte IS 1.25 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Orgryte IS attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 51% | Draw 26% | Orgryte IS 23%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 53%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.