United Nordic 3-3 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Oddevold at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this United Nordic vs Oddevold fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
United Nordic host Oddevold at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 June 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Oddevold — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects United Nordic 1.65 xG and Oddevold 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: United Nordic attack 1.048 / defence 1.072 | Oddevold attack 1.125 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.444. Data: 13 United Nordic games / 43 Oddevold games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: United Nordic 37% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 41%. Fair-value odds: United Nordic 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Oddevold 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oddevold as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: United Nordic vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sodertalje Fotbollsarena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: United Nordic 37% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG United Nordic 1.65 / Oddevold 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: United Nordic attack 1.048 / def 1.072 | Oddevold attack 1.125 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
United Nordic xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Oddevold xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does United Nordic vs Oddevold kick off?
United Nordic vs Oddevold kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
What was the final score in United Nordic vs Oddevold?
United Nordic 3 - 3 Oddevold.
Where is United Nordic vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
What competition is United Nordic vs Oddevold part of?
United Nordic vs Oddevold is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win United Nordic vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives United Nordic a 37% chance of winning, Oddevold a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in United Nordic vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both United Nordic and Oddevold will score (BTTS).
Will United Nordic vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Oddevold?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are United Nordic and Oddevold in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Oddevold away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from United Nordic's attack rating (1.05) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus United Nordic's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
37%
2.72
23%
4.42
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
United Nordic xG
Total xG
3.39
1.74
Oddevold xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
8%
12.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for United Nordic vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are United Nordic and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for United Nordic and 1.74 for Oddevold, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for United Nordic vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
United Nordic
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between United Nordic and Oddevold runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
United Nordic
1
Draws
0
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Oddevold?
From 1 meetings on record, United Nordic have won 0, Oddevold have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did United Nordic and Oddevold last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when United Nordic 3-3 Oddevold.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = United Nordic home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
United Nordic and Oddevold share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
United Nordic and Oddevold finished level at 3-3 at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting United Nordic 1.65 xG and Oddevold 1.74 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. United Nordic beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Oddevold outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of United Nordic attack 1.05 / defence 1.07 against Oddevold attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it United Nordic 37% | Draw 23% | Oddevold 41%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.