United Nordic 1-4 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Sodertalje Fotbollsarena to take on United Nordic. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, United Nordic stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for United Nordic, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena, United Nordic have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: United Nordic 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. United Nordic register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for United Nordic, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2026, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

United Nordic in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — United Nordic 71% and Landskrona BoIS 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (United Nordic 50% | Landskrona BoIS 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects United Nordic 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: United Nordic attack 1.069 / defence 1.314 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.030 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.345. Data: 24 United Nordic games / 54 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: United Nordic 26% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 49%. Fair-value odds: United Nordic 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 2.04. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: United Nordic 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights