United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Sodertalje Fotbollsarena to take on United Nordic. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, United Nordic stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for United Nordic, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena, United Nordic have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: United Nordic 1.50 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. United Nordic register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for United Nordic, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2026, ended 0–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
United Nordic in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — United Nordic 68% and Landskrona BoIS 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (United Nordic 50% | Landskrona BoIS 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects United Nordic 1.24 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: United Nordic attack 0.996 / defence 1.151 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.941 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.316. Data: 22 United Nordic games / 51 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: United Nordic 31% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 40%. Fair-value odds: United Nordic 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: United Nordic 70% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sodertalje Fotbollsarena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: United Nordic 31% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG United Nordic 1.24 / Landskrona BoIS 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: United Nordic attack 0.996 / def 1.151 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.941 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
United Nordic xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Landskrona BoIS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
Where is United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Sodertalje Fotbollsarena.
What competition is United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives United Nordic a 31% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): United Nordic 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS in?
United Nordic (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from United Nordic's attack rating (1.00) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus United Nordic's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
31%
3.18
28%
3.51
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
United Nordic xG
Total xG
2.66
1.42
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for United Nordic and 1.42 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
United Nordic come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 8D 5L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W. The sample for United Nordic is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: United Nordic on 1.59 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
United Nordic's home form reads 5W 4D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 1.82 points per game from 11 outings (6W 2D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
United Nordic are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.36 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: United Nordic have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
United Nordic
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
United Nordic have gone 9W 8D 5L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 9W 7D 6L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — United Nordic at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Landskrona BoIS's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — United Nordic at home: 1.73 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 16 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
United Nordic
0
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS?
From 1 meetings on record, United Nordic have won 0, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 16 June 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-0 United Nordic.
Who has won more matches between United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
United Nordic are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — United Nordic at 73%, Landskrona BoIS at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (United Nordic) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = United Nordic home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when United Nordic play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of United Nordic's games and 64% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of United Nordic's matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do United Nordic and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
United Nordic have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.