Trelleborg 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Osters IF travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Osters IF — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Osters IF's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Trelleborg's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 0 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Osters IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Osters IF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Trelleborg 47% | Osters IF 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.29 xG and Osters IF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / defence 0.833 | Osters IF attack 1.121 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.433. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 38 Trelleborg games / 38 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 34% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Osters IF 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 60% | Osters IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 34% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Trelleborg 1.29 / Osters IF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.068 / def 0.833 | Osters IF attack 1.121 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Osters IF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Osters IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Osters IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 34% chance of winning, Osters IF a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trelleborg and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 1W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trelleborg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
34%
2.98
30%
3.28
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.34
Osters IF xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.34 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 10D 9L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.43 PPG, Osters IF on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 8W 3D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.13 points per game from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.10 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Osters IF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 12W 10D 8L in their last 30 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Osters IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Trelleborg or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trelleborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Osters IF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Osters IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 60%, Osters IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trelleborg) and 27% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osters IF in 33%; Osters IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 40% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trelleborg's recent games and 27% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Osters IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Trelleborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Trelleborg 1-2 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.29 xG and Osters IF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.83 against Osters IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.80, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 34% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 47%, Osters IF 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.43 PPG, Osters IF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.