Trelleborg 1-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orgryte IS at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trelleborg host Orgryte IS at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vångavallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orgryte IS — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Trelleborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Orgryte IS in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Trelleborg hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 0 for Orgryte IS, with 2 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Trelleborg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Trelleborg and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 54% versus Orgryte IS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 53% | Orgryte IS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.926 / defence 1.127 | Orgryte IS attack 1.132 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.182. Data: 55 Trelleborg games / 55 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Trelleborg dominate the H2H record, yet Orgryte IS are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 70% | Orgryte IS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Trelleborg 1.19 / Orgryte IS 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.926 / def 1.127 | Orgryte IS attack 1.132 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS part of?
Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 29% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Trelleborg and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Record (7 meetings): Trelleborg 5W | Draws 2 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Orgryte IS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
29%
3.46
27%
3.65
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.69
1.51
Orgryte IS xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
6%
15.62
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.51 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 19W 15D 21L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.31 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 10W 5D 12L from 27 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.35 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Orgryte IS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.48 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Trelleborg
2
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 6, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Orgryte IS?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 52%, Orgryte IS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Trelleborg) and 44% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 52% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Trelleborg's recent games and 44% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.19 xG and Orgryte IS 1.51 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Orgryte IS landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.13 against Orgryte IS attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 29% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 44%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Trelleborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 53%, Orgryte IS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.31 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.