Trelleborg 1-3 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Trelleborg welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Vångavallen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Trelleborg have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vångavallen. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 0.80 PPG versus Jonkopings Sodra's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Trelleborg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 62% versus Jonkopings Sodra 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 45% | Jonkopings Sodra 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.65 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.163 / defence 1.080 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.653 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.233. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Trelleborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Trelleborg games / 29 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 55% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Jonkopings Sodra 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Trelleborg (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 55% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Trelleborg 1.65 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.163 / def 1.080 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.653 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Jonkopings Sodra xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Trelleborg 1 - 3 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 55% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.16x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.80
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.52
0.87
Jonkopings Sodra xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
27.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Trelleborg and 0.87 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 11W 10D 8L from 29 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 12L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.48 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Trelleborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 3W 3D 8L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 8L in their last 29 games (1.48 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.93 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
3
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, Jonkopings Sodra 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Trelleborg) and 36% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 43% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trelleborg vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Trelleborg's recent games and 36% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Trelleborg 1-3 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.65 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 55% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 19%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 45%, Jonkopings Sodra 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.48 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.