Trelleborg 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trelleborg face Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and Helsingborg meet at Vångavallen in Superettan (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Trelleborg's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Trelleborg have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Helsingborg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Helsingborg have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Trelleborg, 0 for Helsingborg and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Jul 2023, ended Trelleborg 3–1 Helsingborg — a Trelleborg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trelleborg — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trelleborg 63% versus Helsingborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 65% | Helsingborg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.42 xG and Helsingborg 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.835 / defence 1.441 | Helsingborg attack 0.839 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.293. Trelleborg's defence rating of 1.441 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Helsingborg's projected output up. Data: built from Trelleborg's last 57 games and Helsingborg's last 27.
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.89 | Draw 4.10 | Helsingborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trelleborg's last 10 home games and Helsingborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trelleborg 40% (last 10 home games) | Helsingborg 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 28 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 35% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Trelleborg 1.42 / Helsingborg 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.835 / def 1.441 | Helsingborg attack 0.839 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Helsingborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trelleborg vs Helsingborg FAQs
What time does Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Trelleborg 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Helsingborg part of?
Trelleborg vs Helsingborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 35% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Trelleborg and Helsingborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trelleborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 0.83x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.84x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from Trelleborg's last 57 games and Helsingborg's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.10
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.56
Helsingborg xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
7%
13.78
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trelleborg vs Helsingborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.56 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Trelleborg have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 12D 22L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Helsingborg's form line: 11W 13D 33L from 57 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Helsingborg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Trelleborg have posted 1.54 PPG from their last 28 home games (13W 4D 11L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 4W 7D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trelleborg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 0.91 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
Trelleborg (Home) vs Helsingborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trelleborg
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Trelleborg vs Helsingborg Form FAQs
What form are Trelleborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 12D 22L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 11W 13D 33L in their last 57 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Helsingborg away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.54 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Trelleborg and Helsingborg, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won Helsingborg 0-3 Trelleborg on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 1W 3D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
4
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Trelleborg vs Helsingborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Trelleborg have won 3, Helsingborg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2025: Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Helsingborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 57%, Helsingborg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Trelleborg and 54% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trelleborg vs Helsingborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trelleborg and Helsingborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trelleborg's games and 61% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Trelleborg and Helsingborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Trelleborg's matches and 54% of Helsingborg's.
Do Trelleborg and Helsingborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Trelleborg's recent matches and 79% of Helsingborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Trelleborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.42 xG and Helsingborg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Trelleborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.83 / defence 1.44 against Helsingborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 35% | Draw 24% | Helsingborg 41%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 65%, Helsingborg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Helsingborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.