Trelleborg 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall meet at Vångavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 June 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 0.83 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.889 / defence 1.156 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.039 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 0.879 / away 1.058. Data: 8 Trelleborg games / 8 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 24% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 47%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | GIF Sundsvall 2.13. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Jun 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 24% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Trelleborg 0.83 / GIF Sundsvall 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.889 / def 1.156 | GIF Sundsvall attack 1.039 / def 1.059 | league avg home 0.879 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
GIF Sundsvall xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 June 2021 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Trelleborg 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 24% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Trelleborg's attack rating (0.89) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (1.04x) against Trelleborg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.45
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.10
1.27
GIF Sundsvall xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.27 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trelleborg have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Trelleborg
1
Draws
4
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Trelleborg 2-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Trelleborg defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 0.83 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.27 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.16 against GIF Sundsvall attack 1.04 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 24% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 47%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.