Skövde AIK 0-2 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Skövde AIK host Vasteras SK FK at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Skövde AIK have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Skövde AIK 2.00 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.49 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.833 / defence 0.949 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.921 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.384. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Skövde AIK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Skövde AIK games / 40 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 29%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Skövde AIK 1.49 / Vasteras SK FK 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.833 / def 0.949 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.921 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vasteras SK FK xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 42% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Skövde AIK's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.48
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.70
1.21
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.21 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Skövde AIK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Skövde AIK have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Vasteras SK FK in 100%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Early Season
Vasteras SK FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Skövde AIK or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vasteras SK FK go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jun 2023, when Vasteras SK FK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
4
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Skövde AIK 0-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 100% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasteras SK FK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.49 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.21 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 42% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 29%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Vasteras SK FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Vasteras SK FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Vasteras SK FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Skövde AIK managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.