Skövde AIK 5-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Skövde AIK take on Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK meet at Södermalms IP in Superettan (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Skövde AIK's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Skövde AIK at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 2W 7D 1L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ostersunds FK have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Skövde AIK, 1.30 for Ostersunds FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Ostersunds FK edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2023, ended Skövde AIK 1–2 Ostersunds FK — a Ostersunds FK win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Skövde AIK — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 54% versus Ostersunds FK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 52% | Ostersunds FK 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Skövde AIK surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Ostersunds FK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 0.97 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.837 / defence 0.929 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.882 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.209. Ostersunds FK bring a tight defence (rating 0.754, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Skövde AIK's projected output down. Data: built from Skövde AIK's last 52 games and Ostersunds FK's last 52.
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.08 | Draw 2.96 | Ostersunds FK 2.97. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 69% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Skövde AIK's last 10 home games and Ostersunds FK's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Skövde AIK 40% (last 10 home games) | Ostersunds FK 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 23 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Skövde AIK 0.97 / Ostersunds FK 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.837 / def 0.929 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.882 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ostersunds FK xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK FAQs
What time does Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Skövde AIK 5 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 32% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.84) and Ostersunds FK's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.88x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Skövde AIK's last 52 games and Ostersunds FK's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
34%
2.96
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.96
0.99
Ostersunds FK xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
13%
7.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.0 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.99 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Skövde AIK come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 15D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (14W 21D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.21 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Skövde AIK's home form reads 8W 10D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 0.96 points per game from their last 25 away games (5W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Skövde AIK (Home) vs Ostersunds FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Skövde AIK
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Form FAQs
What form are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 14W 21D 17L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.36 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Skövde AIK won Skövde AIK 5-1 Ostersunds FK on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Skövde AIK have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2024: Ostersunds FK 2-2 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 52%, Ostersunds FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Skövde AIK) and 36% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Skövde AIK vs Ostersunds FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 48% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 36% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Ostersunds FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 60% of Ostersunds FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Skövde AIK run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat Ostersunds FK 5-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 0.97 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Skövde AIK beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.88 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 32% | Draw 34% | Ostersunds FK 34%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Skövde AIK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 52%, Ostersunds FK 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.15 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.