Skövde AIK 0-0 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Södermalms IP plays host to Skövde AIK versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Tuesday 9 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Skövde AIK (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Skövde AIK's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 games at Södermalms IP this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.60 for Osters IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Skövde AIK 1W, Osters IF 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Skövde AIK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Skövde AIK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Skövde AIK 58% and Osters IF 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 47% | Osters IF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 0.96 xG and Osters IF 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.777 / defence 0.995 | Osters IF attack 1.039 / defence 0.881. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.300. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Skövde AIK games / 47 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 2.22. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Skövde AIK 44% | Osters IF 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Skövde AIK 0.96 / Osters IF 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.777 / def 0.995 | Osters IF attack 1.039 / def 0.881 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Osters IF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Osters IF kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 9 August 2022 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Osters IF?
Skövde AIK 0 - 0 Osters IF.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Osters IF part of?
Skövde AIK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 27% chance of winning, Osters IF a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Skövde AIK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Skövde AIK 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Osters IF in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.78) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.04x) against Skövde AIK's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
27%
3.73
28%
3.60
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.31
1.34
Osters IF xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.34 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Skövde AIK have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 9W 6D 4L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, 1.74 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Skövde AIK against 1.74 for Osters IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Skövde AIK have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Osters IF in 79%.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.67 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Osters IF in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Osters IF go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 5-2 on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Skövde AIK have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, Osters IF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2024, when Osters IF 5-2 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 44%, Osters IF 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Skövde AIK) and 56% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Skövde AIK's games and 78% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 56% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Skövde AIK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK and Osters IF finished level at 0-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 0.96 xG and Osters IF 1.34 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Osters IF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.78 / defence 0.99 against Osters IF attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 27% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 45%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 47%, Osters IF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osters IF's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.74 PPG, Osters IF 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.