Skövde AIK 1-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Skövde AIK welcome AFC Eskilstuna to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 June 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Skövde AIK's home record at Södermalms IP: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, AFC Eskilstuna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Skövde AIK 1.10 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Skövde AIK, 0 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Skövde AIK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Skövde AIK trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 56% versus AFC Eskilstuna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.50 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.949 / defence 1.260 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.955 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.138. Data: 40 Skövde AIK games / 40 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 40% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | AFC Eskilstuna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Skövde AIK 80% | AFC Eskilstuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jun 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 40% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Skövde AIK 1.50 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.949 / def 1.260 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.955 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.37
AFC Eskilstuna xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 5 June 2023 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Skövde AIK 1 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 40% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (2 meetings): Skövde AIK 2W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.95) and AFC Eskilstuna's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.80
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.87
1.37
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
8%
13.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.37 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Skövde AIK have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 12W 12D 8L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
AFC Eskilstuna's form line: 14W 4D 14L from 32 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.50 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Skövde AIK have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (6W 7D 3L).
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 3D 8L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.59 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 12W 12D 8L in their last 32 games (1.50 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 14W 4D 14L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.56 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or AFC Eskilstuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AFC Eskilstuna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Skövde AIK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Skövde AIK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 56%, AFC Eskilstuna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Skövde AIK) and 56% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play AFC Eskilstuna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Skövde AIK's games and 62% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Skövde AIK vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 56% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Skövde AIK edge out AFC Eskilstuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Skövde AIK beat AFC Eskilstuna 1-0 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.50 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.37 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 40% | Draw 26% | AFC Eskilstuna 34%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.50 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Skövde AIK win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.