Sandviken 2-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sandviken welcome Landskrona BoIS to Arena Jernvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandviken — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 2L across 8 games at Arena Jernvallen this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sandviken are significantly better at Arena Jernvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sandviken at 1.70 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sandviken, 1 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 0–4 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 50% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 61% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.40 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.155 / defence 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.213 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.170. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.30 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Sandviken games / 48 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sandviken 50% | Landskrona BoIS 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sandviken 1.40 / Landskrona BoIS 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.155 / def 0.918 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.213 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Sandviken 2 - 0 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.16x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.70
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.30 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 8W 4D 6L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 5D 2L from 18 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sandviken.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (6W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away games — 2.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.78 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Landskrona BoIS in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 games (1.56 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 2L in their last 18 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Sandviken's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.25 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sandviken
0
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sandviken at 50%, Landskrona BoIS at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sandviken and 62% for Landskrona BoIS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sandviken's games and 88% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sandviken's matches and 62% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Landskrona BoIS 2-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.40 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.21 / defence 0.84, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 34%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 61%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.56. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.