Ostersunds FK 1-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Trelleborg travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 5W 4D 1L at Jämtkraft Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG, Trelleborg 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ostersunds FK, 1 for Trelleborg and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ostersunds FK 58% and Trelleborg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 43% | Trelleborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and Trelleborg 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.078 / defence 1.039 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.183. Data: 31 Ostersunds FK games / 31 Trelleborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 80% | Trelleborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.54 / Trelleborg 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.078 / def 1.039 | Trelleborg attack 1.027 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Trelleborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 44% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 1.08x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
44%
2.28
25%
4.00
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.80
1.26
Trelleborg xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.26 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 22D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 12W 11D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 22D 20L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Trelleborg away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.57 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Trelleborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ostersunds FK at 63%, Trelleborg at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ostersunds FK) and 60% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ostersunds FK's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 60% of Trelleborg's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ostersunds FK edge out Trelleborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 1-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.54 xG and Trelleborg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trelleborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Trelleborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 44% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 31%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 43%, Trelleborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.27 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ostersunds FK win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.