Ostersunds FK 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 16 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Osters IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Osters IF arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Ostersunds FK half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Osters IF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 40% versus Osters IF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 51% | Osters IF 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.70 xG and Osters IF 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.633 / defence 1.274 | Osters IF attack 1.059 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.324. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Ostersunds FK games / 43 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 13% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 62%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 7.69 | Draw 4.17 | Osters IF 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osters IF at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 30% | Osters IF 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 13% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.70 / Osters IF 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.633 / def 1.274 | Osters IF attack 1.059 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Osters IF xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 13% chance of winning, Osters IF a 62% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.63) and Osters IF's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.06x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
13%
7.53
24%
4.10
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.49
1.79
Osters IF xG
7.53
13%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
17%
5.97
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
2%
44.92
31%
3.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.79 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 43 games, going 4W 8D 31L for 0.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.56 PPG from 43 outings (18W 13D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.09 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 4W 3D 13L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.26 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 8D 31L in their last 43 games (0.47 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.75 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Osters IF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
3
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 2, Osters IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 45%, Osters IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ostersunds FK) and 35% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 40% of games; Osters IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 50% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 35% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Osters IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Osters IF finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.70 xG and Osters IF 1.79 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.63 / defence 1.27 against Osters IF attack 1.06 / defence 0.76, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 13% | Draw 24% | Osters IF 62%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 51%, Osters IF 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.