Ostersunds FK 1-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ostersunds FK at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Orgryte IS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Orgryte IS's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Orgryte IS's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.60 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Orgryte IS and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 60% versus Orgryte IS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 44% | Orgryte IS 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG and Orgryte IS 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.043 / defence 0.963 | Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 0.888. Data: 33 Ostersunds FK games / 33 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Orgryte IS 4.17. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. This conflicts with form data: Ostersunds FK 80% | Orgryte IS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.20 / Orgryte IS 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.043 / def 0.963 | Orgryte IS attack 0.900 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.328 / away 0.888 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Orgryte IS xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 46% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS?
Record (4 meetings): Ostersunds FK 2W | Draws 2 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.90x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.31
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
1.97
0.77
Orgryte IS xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
7%
13.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.77 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 18W 23D 21L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 18D 25L from 62 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.21 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (12W 11D 8L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.27 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 18W 23D 21L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Orgryte IS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.52 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orgryte IS won 6-0 on 27 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
3
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when Orgryte IS 6-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 64%, Orgryte IS 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Ostersunds FK) and 52% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ostersunds FK's games and 55% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 52% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Orgryte IS finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.20 xG and Orgryte IS 0.77 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Orgryte IS attack 0.90 / defence 0.86, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 46% | Draw 30% | Orgryte IS 24%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 44%, Orgryte IS 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.24 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.