Ostersunds FK 3-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Superettan record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus Landskrona BoIS 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 47% | Landskrona BoIS 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.03 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.667 / defence 1.201 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.824 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.296. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Ostersunds FK games / 47 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 41%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Landskrona BoIS are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Landskrona BoIS 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.03 / Landskrona BoIS 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.667 / def 1.201 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.824 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK 3 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 29% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.67x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.82x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
29%
3.47
30%
3.32
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.31
1.28
Landskrona BoIS xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.28 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 4W 11D 32L from 47 games, a 0.49 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 18L across 47 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Landskrona BoIS by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 4W 5D 13L from 22 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 4W 4D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.34 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 11D 32L in their last 47 games (0.49 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 11D 18L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.77 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ostersunds FK won 4-1 on 15 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 5, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Landskrona BoIS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ostersunds FK) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 36% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Landskrona BoIS 3-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.03 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.28 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ostersunds FK beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.20 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 29% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 41%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Landskrona BoIS 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.49. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.