Ostersunds FK 0-0 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Halmstad (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ostersunds FK face Halmstad.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Halmstad make the trip to Jämtkraft Arena to face Ostersunds FK in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 3W 4D 3L at Jämtkraft Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Halmstad's overall Superettan record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Halmstad are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Halmstad in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Halmstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus Halmstad 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 50% | Halmstad 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.38 xG and Halmstad 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.953 / defence 1.208 | Halmstad attack 1.260 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.305. Halmstad have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Ostersunds FK games / 24 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 52%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Halmstad 1.92. Halmstad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Halmstad as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Halmstad if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.37 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Halmstad 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.38 / Halmstad 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.953 / def 1.208 | Halmstad attack 1.260 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Halmstad xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 0 Halmstad.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 27% chance of winning, Halmstad a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Halmstad 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Halmstad (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.95) and Halmstad's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (1.26x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
27%
3.76
22%
4.58
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.37
1.99
Halmstad xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
14%
7.30
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
4%
27.42
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.99 for Halmstad, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 8W 12D 34L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Halmstad's form line: 22W 17D 15L from 54 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Halmstad are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L).
On the road, Halmstad have gone 11W 6D 9L from 26 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 1.39 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 12D 34L in their last 54 games (0.67 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 22W 17D 15L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Halmstad away?
Halmstad's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.92 PPG; Halmstad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Halmstad in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Halmstad have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Halmstad.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Halmstad?
Halmstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 54%, Halmstad 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ostersunds FK) and 50% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Halmstad in 31%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 31% of games; Halmstad in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 46% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 50% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Halmstad tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ostersunds FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Halmstad finished level at 0-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.38 xG and Halmstad 1.99 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Halmstad landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Halmstad attack 1.26 / defence 0.99, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 27% | Draw 22% | Halmstad 52%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 50%, Halmstad 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Halmstad's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Halmstad arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.