Ostersunds FK 1-3 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 41%, yet in-form GIF Sundsvall provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Ostersunds FK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Jamtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Jamtkraft Arena this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jamtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. GIF Sundsvall's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 2 for GIF Sundsvall and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 54% versus GIF Sundsvall 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 46% | GIF Sundsvall 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.57 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.249 / defence 1.167 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.941 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.287. Data: 48 Ostersunds FK games / 48 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 34%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | GIF Sundsvall 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIF Sundsvall (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 90% | GIF Sundsvall 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jamtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.57 / GIF Sundsvall 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.249 / def 1.167 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.941 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Jamtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 3 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Jamtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 41% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (5 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.94
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.99
1.41
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
7%
14.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.41 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 14D 21L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 19W 12D 19L from 50 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.18 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 4D 11L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.10 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.71 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 71%, GIF Sundsvall 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ostersunds FK) and 38% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 33%; GIF Sundsvall in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 33% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Ostersunds FK 1-3 at Jamtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.57 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.41 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.25 / defence 1.17 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 41% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 34%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIF Sundsvall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, GIF Sundsvall 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.18 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.