Ostersunds FK 1-2 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Ostersunds FK welcome GIF Sundsvall to Jämtkraft Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 18 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Jämtkraft Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ostersunds FK are significantly better at Jämtkraft Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ostersunds FK) versus 1.20 (GIF Sundsvall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ostersunds FK, 1 for GIF Sundsvall and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 46% | GIF Sundsvall 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.982 / defence 0.829 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.529 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.250. Data: 52 Ostersunds FK games / 52 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 13%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — GIF Sundsvall's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | GIF Sundsvall 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 33% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.49 / GIF Sundsvall 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.982 / def 0.829 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.529 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
33%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 18 September 2024 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 60% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 1W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 2-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
60%
1.68
28%
3.62
13%
7.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.03
0.55
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
7.78
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
58%
1.73
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
3%
34.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 10.7 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 0.55 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Ostersunds FK have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 18D 17L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 14W 14D 24L from 52 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 1.33 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ostersunds FK have posted 1.77 PPG from 26 outings (12W 10D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ostersunds FK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 4W 6D 16L from 26 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.04 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 17W 18D 17L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 14D 24L in their last 52 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.77 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ostersunds FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2023, when Ostersunds FK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
3
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 73%, GIF Sundsvall 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ostersunds FK) and 38% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 31% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.55 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.53 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 60% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 13%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 46%, GIF Sundsvall 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.33 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.