Osters IF 2-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Sandviken travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Osters IF are significantly better at Visma Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sandviken — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 0, Sandviken 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sandviken winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Sandviken in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 50% versus Sandviken 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 45% | Sandviken 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.81 xG and Sandviken 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.025 / defence 0.731 | Sandviken attack 0.946 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.199. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Osters IF games / 20 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 60% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 16%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Sandviken 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sandviken (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 30% | Sandviken 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 60% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Osters IF 1.81 / Sandviken 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.025 / def 0.731 | Sandviken attack 0.946 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sandviken xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Sandviken kick off?
Osters IF vs Sandviken kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Osters IF 2 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Osters IF vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Sandviken part of?
Osters IF vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 60% chance of winning, Sandviken a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osters IF and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sandviken?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 0 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Sandviken in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sandviken (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.12
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.64
0.83
Sandviken xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
38.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Osters IF and 0.83 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF come into this having played 20 games, going 9W 6D 5L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.70 PPG from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osters IF on 1.65 PPG, Sandviken on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osters IF's home form reads 6W 3D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — Osters IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandviken's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.70 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Sandviken in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Sandviken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 9W 6D 5L in their last 20 games (1.65 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 10W 4D 6L in their last 20 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Sandviken away?
Osters IF's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.10 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sandviken in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Osters IF
1
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sandviken?
From 3 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Sandviken have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Osters IF 1-0 Sandviken.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Sandviken see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 30%, Sandviken 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Osters IF) and 60% (Sandviken).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Sandviken in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Osters IF's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Osters IF's recent games and 60% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Sandviken tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osters IF and Sandviken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF and Sandviken finished level at 2-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.81 xG and Sandviken 0.83 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.73 against Sandviken attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 60% | Draw 24% | Sandviken 16%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 45%, Sandviken 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Sandviken's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.65 PPG, Sandviken 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.