Osters IF 2-1 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Osters IF and Ostersunds FK meet at Visma Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Visma Arena, Osters IF have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ostersunds FK (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Osters IF's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Osters IF 0W, Ostersunds FK 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 54% versus Ostersunds FK 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 40% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.89 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.160 / defence 1.100 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.695 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.358. Data: 50 Osters IF games / 20 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Ostersunds FK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 80% | Ostersunds FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Osters IF 1.89 / Ostersunds FK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.160 / def 1.100 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.695 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Ostersunds FK xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF 2 - 1 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 56% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osters IF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (1 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK in?
Osters IF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 1.16x the league average against Ostersunds FK's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.69x) against Osters IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 50/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.05
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.93
1.04
Ostersunds FK xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.62
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
3%
34.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.04 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Osters IF have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 17D 12L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ostersunds FK's form line: 6W 11D 33L from 50 games, 0.58 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ostersunds FK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Osters IF have posted 1.79 PPG from 24 outings (12W 7D 5L).
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 4D 19L from 24 away games — 0.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.86 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 21W 17D 12L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 11D 33L in their last 50 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Osters IF's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.79 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 0.29 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Osters IF
3
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Ostersunds FK 1-0 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Ostersunds FK?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 58%, Ostersunds FK 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osters IF) and 46% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Osters IF's recent matches and 38% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osters IF's recent games and 46% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Ostersunds FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Ostersunds FK 2-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.89 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.16 / defence 1.10 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.69 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 56% | Draw 25% | Ostersunds FK 19%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 40%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.