Orgryte IS 3-1 Vasalund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasalund at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Vasalund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orgryte IS and Vasalund meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Orgryte IS (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 0W 3D 2L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Vasalund have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vasalund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Orgryte IS — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vasalund — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 60% versus Vasalund 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 30% | Vasalund 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 0.93 xG and Vasalund 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.632 / defence 1.090 | Vasalund attack 1.079 / defence 1.631. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.076. Orgryte IS's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vasalund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.631 — this is suppressing Orgryte IS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Orgryte IS games / 10 Vasalund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 44%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Vasalund 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasalund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasalund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orgryte IS 20% | Vasalund 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Vasalund | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Orgryte IS 0.93 / Vasalund 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.632 / def 1.090 | Vasalund attack 1.079 / def 1.631 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Vasalund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vasalund xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Vasalund kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Vasalund kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Vasalund?
Orgryte IS 3 - 1 Vasalund.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Vasalund being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Vasalund part of?
Orgryte IS vs Vasalund is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Vasalund?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 27% chance of winning, Vasalund a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasalund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Vasalund?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orgryte IS and Vasalund will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Vasalund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasalund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasalund in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Vasalund (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.63x the league average against Vasalund's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasalund's attack (1.08x) against Orgryte IS's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasalund Win
27%
3.66
29%
3.49
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.20
1.26
Vasalund xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Vasalund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Vasalund expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.26 for Vasalund, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Vasalund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 10 outings, Orgryte IS have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 2W 5D 3L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasalund's form line: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Vasalund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Orgryte IS against 1.00 for Vasalund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Orgryte IS have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L).
On the road, Vasalund have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vasalund are on 1.30 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Vasalund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Vasalund in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Vasalund have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Vasalund away?
Orgryte IS's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 0.75 PPG; Vasalund away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Vasalund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vasalund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
Vasalund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Vasalund?
From 2 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Vasalund have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Vasalund last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Vasalund 1-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Vasalund?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orgryte IS tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Vasalund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 25%, Vasalund 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Orgryte IS) and 100% (Vasalund).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Orgryte IS have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Vasalund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Vasalund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 75% of Vasalund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Vasalund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 100% of Vasalund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Vasalund tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Vasalund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vasalund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Vasalund 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 0.93 xG and Vasalund 1.26 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.63 / defence 1.09 against Vasalund attack 1.08 / defence 1.63, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 27% | Draw 29% | Vasalund 44%, with Vasalund to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Orgryte IS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 30%, Vasalund 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasalund's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.10 PPG, Vasalund 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm. Vasalund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.